The Well-being of Future Generations Act in Wales requires that long-term considerations of poverty, health inequalities and climate change are at the forefront of policy-making. Such goals could be at odds with productivity growth and traditional indicators of prosperity. The economic impact of Covid-19 has been severe across the UK, with Wales no exception. Restrictions […]
Category: Recession & recovery
In the aftermath of Covid-19, finding accurate ways to measure and compare economic progress is as important as ever. Economists and policy-makers are increasingly looking to complement conventional indicators of GDP, unemployment and productivity with metrics based on wellbeing. The economic, social and political turbulence of the past two years has tested the strength and […]
In 1998, Russia experienced sovereign debt default, a massive devaluation of the rouble and a banking crisis. Triggered by the invasion of Ukraine, the currency’s value has again tumbled – and this crisis may be longer lasting and more severe without a move towards peace. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the value […]
Inflation is likely to rise from its current low level due to supply shortages and increased spending. The most probable outcome is a range of 2-3% a year, but it could go higher. Any increase above 3% should be temporary as long as fiscal and monetary policy are set appropriately. Inflation is a general increase […]
The crisis has led to renewed interest in the analytical foundations and policy implications of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), an unorthodox approach to the management of monetary and fiscal affairs. MMT is not a safe basis for a programme for economic recovery. Over the past few years, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT, as presented for example, […]
Many people are debating whether the pandemic offers an opportunity to return to something better than ‘normal’ – in particular, moving away from using GDP growth as the sole indicator of progress. Developing greater economic and social resilience should be central to ‘building back better’. Solving economic problems, especially structural ones, requires new thinking. Returning […]
Covid-19 has revealed the importance of access to key information when faced with an economic and public health shock of such magnitude. Understanding the role of uncertainty and the limitations of theory is critical in designing policies to navigate the challenges ahead. Even before the arrival of Covid-19 in early 2020, the usefulness of models […]
Newspaper articles and social media posts often feature discussion of economic conditions and economic indicators. During the coronavirus crisis, can textual analysis be used to turn these qualitative data into a numerical measure to help us to understand the ‘real-time’ health of the economy? The unparalleled speed and global nature of the Covid-19 crisis is […]
Severe restrictions introduced in response to Covid-19 have disrupted economic activity, especially retail, services and hospitality. Evidence from local lockdowns suggests that it is possible to control the virus without resorting to measures that damage the economy. It is widely recognised that the crude ‘health versus the economy’ dichotomy imposed by strong forms of lockdown […]